Predicting Dengue in the Philippines Using an Artificial Neural Network

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Bryan Zafra


dengue, Philippines, artificial neural network, climate change


Dengue fever is an infectious disease caused by Flavivirus transmitted by Aedes mosquito. This disease predominantly occurs in the tropical and subtropical regions. With no specific treatment, the most effective way to prevent dengue is vector control. The dependence of Aedes mosquito population on meteorological variables make prediction of dengue infection possible using conventional statistical and epidemiologic models. However, with increasing average global temperature, the predictability of these models may be lessened employing the need for artificial neural network. This study uses artificial neural network to predict dengue incidence in the entire Philippines with humidity, rainfall, and temperature as independent variables. All generated predictive models have mean squared logarithmic error of less than 0.04.

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