Disruptive Veränderungen im Risikomanagement durch eine Risikobewertung mit Monte-Carlo-basierter Aggregation?

Ein anwendungsbezogener Methodenvergleich zwischen einem Aggregationsansatz und quantitativen Risiko-Erwartungswerten zur Umstellung des IDW PS 340:2020 n.F.

Abstract

Sustainable positive value contributions to corporate management through aggregated overall risk assessments and risk-bearing capacity analyses, supported by legal concretizations and a new version of IDW PS 340 in 2020, and yet still only just a quarter of listed companies use Monte Carlo-based aggregation as a central tool in risk management. Based on three common, partly industry-typical entrepreneurial risks, a comparative analysis shows why and where risk aggregation is superior to the loss expectation value methodology and derives from this a possible reason for the non-progressive use of the aggregation method in companies: The innovative leap from expected loss values and risk maps to Monte Carlo aggregation shows numerous elements of a methodologically disruptive change in risk management, which involves far more than just a tool extension, but at the same time offers enormous potential in the GRC context for the organization.